One approach for dealing with model heterogeneity is stochastic simulations based on multiple equally plausible candidate realizations of the site heterogeneity. Ideally, such an approach would enable the generation of variability in subsurface soil stratigraphy based on interpretable geologic parameters such as lens width, material proportions, juxta-positioning tendencies and anisotropy. Multiple realizations that are conditioned to borehole data provide modelers with a rational approach for dealing with uncertainty associated with site characterization. Stochastic simulations can be applied to regional representations of the aquifer behavior in addition to local scale simulations. Stochastic simulations are particularly well-suited to local scale models since the resulting complex heterogeneity is more representative of actual stratigraphic deposition. This heterogeneity makes realistic and potentially more accurate contaminant transport simulation possible by simulating the preferential flow channels resulting from thin lenses of clays, sands, or other materials. The ultimate result of a stochastic approach is multiple simulations of hydraulic parameters that create a probabilistic solution. Such a solution has more credence and provides a better understanding of actual site conditions.
The ultimate application of T-PROGS is to generate stochastic simulations of soil heterogeneity. These realizations can then be incorporated into MODFLOW simulations as material sets in the LPF package or as HUF data in the HUF package.
Related Links:
T-PROGS Interface